Tag Archives: real estate in Dickinson

Insight into Dickinson, North Dakota, July 2015

A Brief Partial History of Dickinson, 2009 to 2015:

For those of you who don’t know, Dickinson, Williston, and Minot have just gone through six years of rapid growth, beginning in 2009 when oil drilling began to take off in North Dakota, probably due to new fracturing techniques allowing much more oil to be removed from each well than had been possible before.  The drilling companies like Nabors, Patterson, Cyclone, and HP moved drill rig platforms to North Dakota.  Fracturing companies came to North Dakota, I think Schlumberger was one of them, I think that Haliburton and Baker Hughes are involved in fracturing.  There were wire-line companies, mud-logging companies, work-over rig companies, casing companies, specialty companies that have a role in drilling.  Tanker trucks delivering water for fracturing, tanker trucks removing water after fracturing.  Hot-shot companies delivering equipment and material, roust-about companies handling and installing equipment and material.

So many people were brought to North Dakota, so many people came to North Dakota.  In 2008, the population of Dickinson was about 12,000 people, now it is about 30,000 people.  In 2008, an old one-bedroom apartment cost about $300 per month, by 2010, an old one-bedroom apartment cost about $1,500 per month.  By 2011, the ratio of men to women in Dickinson became about 4 to 1.

I arrived in Dickinson in 2011.  At first, it seemed like an adventure, it was exciting.  I remember going to the Paragon Bowling Alley & Champs Sports Bar in Dickinson in 2011, and there were about 200 people there on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday night.  It was very easy to get a job.  The first place I went to, I got hired right then on the spot.  With overtime, I was making about $1,400 per week.  I met people from all over the United States, and there was a kind of camaraderie with everyone that was a new worker in town, it was like we were all immigrants, kind of in the same boat.  I remember going to Patterson Lake in the summer of 2011, with all the out-of-state workers, DSU college students, and a few local people, there were about 200 people there at the beach on Saturday and Sunday.

In 2013 when I came back to Dickinson, things were much different than in 2011.  There was no more talk in Dickinson about “man camps”, they were not going to be built in Dickinson or Stark County, it was no longer even being discussed.  In 2013, there were approximately at least 500 new apartment units being constructed, and probably one hundred new homes being constructed.  Out-of-state workers were no longer being allowed to stay at the campground at Patterson Lake, Wal-Mart, or the Tiger Truck Stop.  The Dickinson police were now very strict on stopping people for DUI, especially out-of-state workers.  On Saturday and Sunday night in 2013, now there were only about 30 people in the Paragon Bowling & Champs Sports Bar, not 200.  On Saturday and Sunday afternoon in 2013, now there were only about 20 people at Patterson Lake, not 200.  It was a little harder to get a job, though I got hired at the first company I went to, right there on the spot.

In about November of 2014, the price per barrel of oil world-wide, went down, and the price continued to decline in December 2014.  The price per barrel stayed low and went down further in January and February of 2015.  The oil companies in North Dakota such as Continental Resources, Whiting, Occidental, and Marathon decided at the board-of-director level, to hold back on new oil well drilling and on oil well production, there was no use selling all that oil for a low price, it would be better to wait for the price to go back up, then start producing again.  In about March of 2015, in North Dakota we started to see a lot of oil field jobs go away.  The operating drill rig count went from 280, down to 80.  For each drill rig that shut down, it was estimated that 100 jobs went away, that equals 20,000 jobs that went away.

Even though the high paying oil field jobs went away in the beginning of 2015, the most uneducated and uniformed people in the United States continued to come to North Dakota, people that don’t even read the newspaper or watch television news.  Now in Dickinson, there is not a shortage of workers, there are more than enough workers.  The hourly wages have gone down, and the amount of overtime available has gone down.  Not only have many oil field jobs gone away, there is now an over-supply of workers here in Dickinson, there is now a lot of competition for jobs, and few job openings.

At this time, the property managers and the real estate agents in Dickinson are trying their best to keep housing prices high, but they are losing this battle day by day.  I believe that by the summer of 2016, the housing and real estate prices will have dropped by about 20%.  This price drop will be partly due to more new housing being completed, existing housing becoming vacant, demand decreasing, and local wages decreasing.

It is possible, that by the summer of 2016, there will be no benefit to living in Dickinson, in comparison to anywhere else in the United States.  It will likely be just as difficult to get a job in Dickinson, as Idaho Falls, Billings, Colorado Springs, Prescott, Spokane, so there will not be any good reason to move here to Dickinson, because it is cold about eight months out of the year.  I am trying to tell you, It Is Over.

Housing in Dickinson, July 2015

Since 2009, homeowners, apartment owners, and property managers in Dickinson have really taken advantage of everyone.  The property owners increased their prices so much, that it was just barely worth it to come to work in North Dakota.  Yes, you could get a higher hourly wage and work overtime, but a one bedroom shitty old apartment would cost you $1,500 per month.  Now it is time for pay back, what goes around comes around.  Prepare to have your head shoved in shit and held there property owners!  Ha ha ha ha ha!  You caused everyone to have money problems, now you can have money problems!

I have explained in my blog posts after January of 2015, that approximately 20,000 oil field related jobs have gone away in western North Dakota.  The highest paying oil field jobs, those on the drill rigs, have gone away.  I would guess, that about 8,000 workers and about 8,000 of their family members have left the state of North Dakota since January of 2015.  However, there has probably been about 8,000 stupid people who moved to North Dakota since January 2015, those that neither read the newspaper nor watch the news on TV.

There are less oil field workers living in Dickinson now.  The oil field workers that remain in Dickinson are not as high paid as the ones who left, and there is much less overtime being worked now.  The demand for housing is not as great as it had been in 2009, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14.  Plus, plus, in the past year there have probably been at least 400 new housing units completed in Dickinson.  Ha ha, ha ha, ha ha.

Housing prices are going to go down, and down, and down for the next two years.  I have heard that real estate agents in Dickinson are telling people,”You had better buy now, prices are going to go back up in December.”  First of all you lying bitch, it’s 0 degrees Fahrenheit in December, cold and grey, nobody wants to be in Dickinson in December.  Don’t try to victimize me with your treachery and lying, anyone buying any housing in Dickinson will see its value drop about 5% by December 2015, and an additional 20% percent by December of 2016 after reality has set in.  I probably didn’t really figure the drop high enough, what do you think is going to happen when throughout every neighborhood in Dickinson, out-of-state workers are going to just pack what they can into their car and leave, starting about, now?  If there is no way to make your house payment, no way to get a good job in Dickinson, (like right now), what else are you going to do but leave?

I think that the oil field work will possibly pick up a bit in about two years, because of the amount of time it will take to come to the end of this slow down, and the lag time to start proceeding again with more oil field operations.  Think of it like a train, it takes a long distance to slow down, and it takes a long distance to speed up, it is not instantaneous.

Though I am not making much money at this time, one of the reasons that I stay here, is that I hope to be opportunistic when the housing prices reach bottom.  I think that it will take at least two years to get to a bottom.  I want to see housing prices go down and down, and then I want to buy something.  There is oil here, and in the future, oil field workers will have to come back here to Dickinson to get more oil out of the ground.  I would like to own something here in Dickinson because I see the likelihood, almost the inevitability, of oil field workers coming back to Dickinson in the future, and if I can buy something for a low price, and hold onto it long enough, I believe that I would eventually have something that was worth much more than what I originally paid for it.  However, if that ever occurs, I can chose to be reasonable in what I would charge for rent or for a selling price, I don’t have to take advantage of people in the way that other property owners have done in Dickinson.